MADRID – After the recent public appearance of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in which he ruled out any possibility of new negotiations with the United States—at least as long as Washington maintains its "maximum pressure" policy on Tehran—uncertainty looms over the future of bilateral relations. The question many are asking is: What now?

Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, Iranian authorities have made it clear that their policies toward the United States would adjust according to the behavior of the new administration. This approach reflected Tehran's caution in the face of the volatility of U.S. politics, considering scenarios ranging from the renegotiation of a new agreement that would go beyond the nuclear dossier to the tightening of sanctions through a "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign, which ultimately materialized. Even the possibility of a direct conflict between the two countries was not ruled out.

In this scenario, Iran is evaluating various response strategies, taking into account several key factors. One of the most significant is the reevaluation of its regional policies. Iranian political elites recognize the need for a pragmatic reassessment of their position in West Asia, adapting to new geostrategic realities. This includes strengthening alliances with neighboring countries and regional powers, aiming to create a more stable environment that favors their interests.

At the same time, internal economic priorities occupy a central place on the Iranian government's agenda. Faced with persistent economic challenges, Tehran seeks to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, boost domestic production, and diversify its economy to reduce dependence on external actors. The search for new commercial opportunities and adaptation to changes in the global market are essential to maintaining internal stability.

The reinforcement of military capabilities is another pillar of Iran's strategy. Tensions with Israel and the United States, exacerbated by last year's reciprocal attacks, have led Tehran to prioritize deterrence and defense. The situation in the regions has underscored the need not only to preserve but also to strengthen its military arsenal to protect national sovereignty.

In this context, the Islamic Republic maintains significant negotiating power. Its nuclear program has advanced considerably and Israelis claim Iran has the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon, pending only a political decision. Moreover, its missile arsenal has proven capable of striking strategic targets in the occupied territories and U.S. bases in the region, as they did during the 2020 attacks on American bases in Iraq and Operations True Promise I and II against Israel. 

To counter Washington's "maximum pressure," Iran could opt for two approaches: exploring alternative routes and activating pre-designed plans. With the United States likely to attempt to block traditional paths, Tehran will seek to circumvent sanctions through more discreet methods, such as informal oil sales, clandestine money transfers, and acquiring goods through third parties.

However, a crucial aspect is the resilience of Iranian society in the face of this new round of economic pressure. "Maximum pressure" not only aims to force the government to the negotiating table but also to wear down the economy from within, provoking social discontent. The ultimate goal of this policy is to weaken Iran's internal cohesion, pressuring both the leadership and the population to make concessions in the diplomatic arena.

For its part, the United States will continue with a multi-pronged pressure strategy aimed at forcing a negotiation in which, even before the dialogue begins, the very framework of the conversation is designed to favor American interests. Among Washington's objectives are unprecedented economic sanctions aimed at reducing Iran's oil revenues to zero, even in the face of opposition from China. Trump has issued orders to eliminate Iranian oil sales to China, block supply routes for goods, and restrict Iran's use of Iraq's banking network. It remains to be seen whether he will be successful in pursuing those new plans. 

Additionally, the Trump administration has crafted an international campaign aimed at isolating Iran on the global stage. The Secretary of State will lead this initiative through trips and consultations with key U.S. partners in the region and European allies. This strategy is complemented by indirect military threats. During a meeting with Netanyahu, Trump emphasized the "right of the United States to strike Iran's nuclear facilities." In this context, Israel has requested the purchase of advanced weaponry worth $7 billion, with Washington prioritizing the delivery of these supplies.

However, analysts agree that a direct attack on Iran is unlikely due to the "high regional costs" it would entail. Furthermore, it is not clear whether important regional states, which have shifted more toward China’s orbit and mended ties with Tehran in recent years, could be persuaded to meaningfully change their Iran policies. 

In the coming weeks and months, Iranian officials will continue to assess the threats and opportunities presented by the United States. For now, what is clear is that the political decision-makers in Tehran show no signs of being willing to make compromises in potential negotiations.